GEOFF BENNETT: For more on how the 2024 Republican field is shaping up, we turn to our Politics Monday team.

That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Well, hello, hello.

TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Hello.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let's start our conversation about the 2024 race with a bit more about the politician who says he's not going to get into this.

That's New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu.

He wrote an op-ed for The Washington Post, part of which I will read.

He says this: "If Trump is the nominee, Republicans will lose again, just as we did in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

This is indisputable and I am not willing to let it happen without a fight."

He argues that he will have much more power and influence as a kingmaker in New Hampshire.

Is he right about that?

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Well, I do not think so.

I think there is about 10 to 15 percent of the Republican electorate that is interested in non-Trump candidate -- actually not just a non-Trump candidate, but an anti-Trump candidate.

They appeal to those voters, again, very, very narrow.

But for the rest of Republican voters, they are looking for maybe an alternative, maybe 50 to 60 percent looking for an alternative to Donald Trump.

They aren't looking for an anti-Trump.

That's why Governor Sununu had such a narrow lane in the very first place.

His ability in New Hampshire, also, I would put a question mark next to in terms of being a kingmaker.

In 2022, the candidates that he endorsed in primaries went on to lose to candidates who filled much more of the Trumpy category.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Tam, I read some analysis this morning that there are basically three lanes, to pick up on what Amy's talking about.

That's the Trump lane, the Ron DeSantis lane and then the everybody else lane.

So what does it mean for this race to have three more candidates jump in this week?

TAMARA KEITH: One thing that is very clear is that Donald Trump did not clear the race.

He has a lot of people who are looking for a possibility of being the anti-Trump or the alternative to Trump or the candidate who can be president for eight years, and not just four years.

And they're all still feeling out exactly how much they draw that contrast.

And they're all being so careful about it, except Chris Christie, in theory, is going to get in and not be so careful about it and might break some glass.

But the others are being so careful, because, as Amy says, you can't be anti-Trump, when he is still this outsized figure in the party, even as he faces - =even as there was the insurrection, and even as he faces various investigations, and the drama and the chaos, that many voters have some reluctance about it still him versus the rest of the field, which is exactly what ended up being in 2015-2016.

GEOFF BENNETT: And listening to Nikki Haley in Iowa talking about, we have to leave behind the baggage and leave behind the negativity, Ron DeSantis talking about dispensing with the culture of losing.

AMY WALTER: Right.

GEOFF BENNETT: You're talking about Donald Trump, but they're not naming him.

(CROSSTALK) AMY WALTER: Without saying -- right, saying Donald Trump.

GEOFF BENNETT: I mean, is that going to be enough?

Is that enough?

AMY WALTER: We're going to find out soon enough, but I think they are trying to make the case that, hey, look, you can have all of the Trumpism that you love, but it can be more effective, either effective in bringing people into the party, independent voters we keep losing.

Or, with Ron DeSantis, I will be a culture warrior who's more effective than Donald Trump was on some of the things like Critical Race Theory, other issues that he's taken on in Florida.

But the thing about -- we all know around the table, the thing we know about politics is you can come up with a great idea in a test tube about what a campaign should be and what the voters want to hear.

But if they don't really think it's the right message, then it's not really going anywhere.

It is pretty clear there's some fatigue with Donald Trump from voters.

Doesn't mean that they don't like him anymore.

But there is the fatigue about, ugh, maybe the chaos and people, the divisions, all the things that he helped to sow that, if they can -- as to Tam's point, if they can keep that needle threaded, they might be able to convince voters who liked Donald Trump to pick somebody else as the nominee.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, Tam, looking ahead a bit, the Republican National Committee, they have announced the first 2024 Republican presidential primary debate.

And they have also outlined the qualifying criteria.

And so it's this.

Candidates have to register at least 1 percent in three national polls.

They also need at least 40,000 donors with at least 200 donors per state in 20-plus states.

And the candidates also have to sign a pledge agreeing to support the eventual party nominee.

Open question there, does Donald Trump participate?

Does he sign on to this pledge?

TAMARA KEITH: And does someone like Chris Christie, who says that he wouldn't support Donald Trump as president, does he sign on to this pledge?

GEOFF BENNETT: Yes, good point.

TAMARA KEITH: And this pledge is bigger than just that.

It also includes agreements to share data and voter file information with the RNC.

So there is kind of a lot at stake for these candidates in making that decision?

I think as, it was in the past, will Donald Trump show up?

I think this is a question that is frequently asked and that he loves having asked.

And will -- he didn't show up this weekend in Iowa.

Will that affect him negatively?

Or does it make him look like the big guy who doesn't need to show up?

If he appears on a stage with a minibus full of other candidates, which is what we're headed towards, then does that make him look small, when he is still -- many people in the Republican Party call him the president of the United States, not the former president?

So does appearing on a debate stage bust his mystique of being a winner?

And is he willing to do that?

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, these rules are more stringent than what Democrats required of their candidates back in 2020.

What is the RNC trying to achieve here?

AMY WALTER: Well, I think they would like to have as narrow of a stage as possible in order to make it an interesting debate, right?

You want to have the people on stage who have a reasonable chance of breaking through.

The other thing we know, though, about candidates even who today are pulling in very low numbers, some of those candidates break through that we didn't expect.

I don't think Pete Buttigieg early on was expected to do as well as he did, or some of the other candidates in the past who started off at a very low number.

But I think Tam is right.

It's not so much, can they hit the thresholds, the 1 percent?

Most of the these candidates are hitting 1 percent in the national polls.

They are -- they know how to get these donors through targeting.

But the question will be, does Donald Trump show up?

That is everything.

GEOFF BENNETT: Can we draw on your White House reporting as we wrap up our conversation here?

TAMARA KEITH: Yes, please.

GEOFF BENNETT: What's the word from the Biden campaign, the Biden White House?

What argument did they intend to make moving forward?

TAMARA KEITH: They are making an argument that the president made in an Oval Office address on Friday night, which is that here's a president who can get big bipartisan deals done, that America needs to be less divided, and that he is a messenger of that less divided America.

That same speech also, though, included him going after -- he didn't use MAGA Republicans, but he meant it -- going after Republicans and Republican policies that he disagrees with, saying, these are not the Republicans I can work with that I used to work with that I knew from the Senate.

And I think, notably, his campaign, don't expect to see big campaign rallies or big events anytime soon.

He's the president of the United States.

And his campaign is very few people being sort of scaffolded by the Democratic National Committee.

And they're not acting like they have a primary, because they're not going to have debates.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

GEOFF BENNETT: All right, Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, thank you both.

AMY WALTER: You're welcome.

TAMARA KEITH: Yes.